The Ban and The Don

a random thought on Modi's Demonetization and Trump becoming the President. Two events that can have huge political and economic impact across the globe.

Demonetization and Trump

Fear and Hope are probably the two most important aspects of human psyche that have dominated us since the beginning. We tend to fear what we don’t understand and mostly the ones that we think we understand. At the same time, we tend to get excited about anything that sounds positive and get our hopes high, even if we don’t understand it completely

Two major decisions got taken in the last 24 hours across the globe that has caused Fear and Hope amongst us. One is a seemingly brilliant economic move at home and the other a seemingly dumb political decision in the US. So what if we don’t understand the nuances of either of these decisions and the impact it could have on us.   If the brave move against black money made the working class Indian happy then Trump’s win in the US has brought back those familiar worries.   Most of us don’t have a clue how exactly these decisions will impact us but we know they will. Or at least we think we know it.

A man who is termed as a part time clown or a full time socio path trumped not just Hillary but our collective ego. Why do we fear his victory? We don’t care about the Mexicans and immigrants that he has promised to shoo away. We don’t care about the women he has groped for sure. We are afraid because he might stop outsourcing. Period. We fear losing the status quo. We fear that the American Dream of an Indian might end. Can he do that? Will the political and economic compulsions allow that? Will the demographic reality make it viable? We don’t know because we don’t understand it enough. We fear him because he said he will beat the odds and he did it. We fear him because we are angry. After all, the clown trumped the collective predictions of all the pundits and our prayers.

Where there is fear there is always hope.  Last night’s move against corruption seems good enough so far not because we understand the specifics of its economic impact but because of the intent of this decision. If this can give heart burns to all those corrupt politicians and unworthy rich guys who are hoarding black money, then why not. It’s the hope of having that last laugh which makes us all jump in joy. Rs 500 and 1000 apparently amounts to nearly 80% of the cash in India. Can the RBI pump in enough smaller denominations in time to compensate? Apparently the cost of printing a smaller denomination is higher. What about the non cash black money?  How will that stop? With the concept of cashless economy still a distant dream, the days ahead might not be as convenient as it used to. But then, there is this hope. The hope to see the corrupt bleed. Economics might never get into our head but hope has entered our hearts. And that is good enough for now.

We never know how the reality pans out. We don’t know what we don’t understand. We have seen our best hopes shattered and the worst nightmares turning angels. We will all do well to simply back these two decisions and believe that they turn out better than our fears. Let us believe that this ban is the best move against corruption and the Don decision works not just for the US but for all of us.